Giraffe Pop’ In Masai Mara; High Giraffe Calf Survival (30%) in Maasai Mara’s Low-Lion Zones: Evidence from 8-Year Study

The research on Masai giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) in the Masai Mara, particularly in the areas of Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) and Oloisukut Conservancy (OC) on the Siria Plateau, reveals important insights into giraffe conservation. This study highlights key trends in calf survival, population dynamics, and the challenges giraffes face outside of protected areas. Here is a detailed expert summary:

Summary of the Giraffe Research in Masai Mara

The research on Masai giraffes in the Maasai Mara’s Siria Plateau highlights the critical role of low predator densities, particularly lions, in supporting high giraffe calf survival rates. Conducted at Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) and Oloisukut Conservancy (OC), the study found that areas with lower lion populations, like OGR, reported higher percentages of giraffe calves, surpassing even protected areas where lions are abundant. This was particularly evident in 2021 and 2022, when OGR’s calf percentages exceeded 30%, reflecting improved survival compared to areas with dense predator populations.

Community-led conservation efforts, such as Maasai settlements and predator control, were found to shield giraffes from lion predation, creating safer environments for calves to thrive. Additionally, the presence of livestock in these areas has led to habitat changes that benefit giraffe populations, providing dense thickets where calves can feed and hide. This research emphasizes the importance of non-protected savanna-grassland habitats and community involvement in giraffe conservation, suggesting that areas like OGR, with fewer predators, serve as vital sources of giraffes for neighboring protected areas.

Giraffe Population and Survival:

• Study Areas: The research focused on Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) and Oloisukut Conservancy (OC) on the Siria Plateau, adjacent to the Mara Triangle Conservancy and Masai Mara National Reserve.
• Survey Methods: Photographic mark-recapture (PMR) and observational surveys were conducted from 2014 to 2022 to track giraffes, estimate calf percentages, and monitor survival rates.
• Calf Survival: Giraffe calf survival was found to be higher in areas with lower lion densities, such as OGR, compared to adjacent protected areas. OGR recorded a calf survival rate of 85%, a significant factor in maintaining population stability in the region.

Impact of Predator Density:

• Lion Predation: Lion populations, which pose the most significant threat to giraffe calves, are much lower on the Siria Plateau, where lions are often relocated or managed due to human-wildlife conflict. Lion density in OGR was around 8 lions per 100 km², compared to 17.3 lions per 100 km² in the Mara Triangle and Masai Mara National Reserve. This lower predation pressure contributes to higher calf survival rates on the plateau.
• Human Shielding: The presence of Maasai settlements and livestock in OGR provides a natural “shield” for giraffes, reducing predator presence and creating a safer environment for giraffe calves to grow and transition to adulthood.

Habitat and Land Use:

• Threats from Habitat Loss: A GIS analysis revealed that 42% of the savanna-grassland habitat within the giraffe study area at Oloirien Group Ranch has been destroyed or is off-limits due to privatization and land development. This habitat loss poses a critical threat to giraffe conservation efforts.
• Role of Conservancies: Oloisukut Conservancy, established in 2010, has become a key area for giraffe conservation, although it faces challenges similar to OGR. The establishment of a giraffe conservancy in OGR is now being advocated to further protect giraffe populations in this human-dominated landscape.

Conservation Implications:

The research underscores the importance of areas outside traditional protected zones, such as OGR, in maintaining viable giraffe populations. Despite the ongoing habitat loss and human pressures, giraffes in these regions show high survival rates, especially for calves. Creating giraffe-specific conservancies and expanding community-based conservation programs are critical next steps for preserving these iconic animals in the Greater Maasai Mara ecosystem.

This research highlights how human-wildlife interactions, predator control, and habitat preservation strategies play pivotal roles in the long-term survival of giraffes in the region.

Here is a table representing the key data from the giraffe research study in the Masai Mara at Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) and Oloisukut Conservancy (OC):

Giraffe Calf Percentages at Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) and Oloisukut Conservancy (OC)

Study Site	Year	Management	% Newborn Calves (0-3 months)	% Older Calves (3-12 months)	Total Sample Size (N)
Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR)	2014	None	3%	14%	99
Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR)	2017	None	5%	7%	56
Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR)	2019	None	7%	16%	93
Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR)	2020	None	5%	22%	115
Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR)	2021	None	13%	18%	126
Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR)	2022	None	8%	23%	103
Oloisukut Conservancy (OC)	2019	Conservancy	3%	22%	136
Oloisukut Conservancy (OC)	2020	Conservancy	0%	23%	107
Mean (N=8)	–	–	5.5% ± 3.9	18.1% ± 5.6	–

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Giraffe Survival Rate and Recapture Probability at Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) (2014-2022)

Model Parameters	Survival (Φ)	Recapture Probability (p)	AICc (Score)	Delta AICc	Weight
Constant survival, time-dependent recapture	0.85	Varies by year	278.57	0	0.99
Time + Sex-dependent survival	Varies by sex	Time-dependent	289.27	10.7	0.005
Time + Sex + Age-dependent survival	Varies by sex and age	Time-dependent	290.92	12.35	0.002
Time-dependent survival	Varies by year	Time-dependent	292.27	13.7	0.001

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Giraffe Female Site Fidelity at Oloirien Group Ranch (OGR) (2014-2022)

Number of Years Detected	Percentage of Female Giraffes
Detected only in one year	35%
Detected in two years	19%
Detected in three years	18%
Detected in four years	15%
Detected in all six years	5%
Total percentage observed multiple years	65%

These tables represent key data on giraffe calf survival, giraffe population monitoring through photographic mark-recapture, and site fidelity patterns in the Masai Mara region. The findings emphasize the critical importance of savanna-grasslands outside of protected areas for giraffe conservation.

Population of Masai Giraffes

According to the IUCN Red List, the Masai giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) is considered endangered, with its population having declined by 52% over recent decades due to threats such as poaching and habitat loss​. As of the 2019 IUCN assessment by Bolger et al., the Masai giraffe population in the wild is estimated to be around 32,550 individuals​.

The population trends show continuous declines, particularly in key regions of Kenya and Tanzania. In Kenya, between 1977 and 2015, Masai giraffe numbers plummeted by nearly two-thirds, from approximately 32,000 to just 12,000​ – Data from different source.

The situation is similar in Tanzania, where long-term data from systematic reconnaissance flights between 1986 and 2016 indicate a 37-43% decline in giraffe numbers, particularly in key areas such as Katavi and Ruaha. The combined estimates for both countries show a 49-51% reduction in population over the last 30 years​. This extensive decline highlights the importance of continued conservation efforts and protected areas to preserve the remaining giraffe populations. Conservation programs, including research, monitoring, and habitat protection, are in place, but challenges such as habitat degradation and poaching continue to threaten the species’ survival.

Research conducted by Ogutu et al. in 2019 highlighted significant demographic challenges for giraffes, particularly when comparing those living inside and outside protected areas. Outside of protected zones, giraffes face low adult survival rates largely due to poaching, whereas inside reserves, calf survival is threatened by predators such as lions​. Seasonal factors also play a role, as the presence or absence of migratory herds like wildebeest and zebra affects giraffe calf survival​. Metapopulation analysis from this research underscores the critical importance of protected areas for maintaining giraffe populations within the larger landscape​

Estimating How Long it will take Giraffe Population in Masai Mara to get to Zero;

To estimate how long it would take for the giraffe population in Kenya to reach zero without any conservation measures, we need to analyze the rate of decline based on historical data. From the information provided:

• The giraffe population in Kenya declined from approximately 32,000 in 1977 to 12,000 in 2015.
• This represents a decline of 63% over 38 years.

Steps to Estimate the Time to Zero:

1. Calculate the annual rate of decline:Annual rate of decline=32,000−12,00038=526 giraffes per year\text{Annual rate of decline} = \frac{32,000 – 12,000}{38} = 526 \text{ giraffes per year}Annual rate of decline=3832,000−12,000​=526 giraffes per year
2. Extrapolate future decline: Assuming no conservation measures, if the population continues to decline at 526 giraffes per year, we can estimate how long it will take for the remaining population (12,000 giraffes as of 2015) to reach zero.
3. Time to extinction:Time to zero=12,000526≈22.8 years\text{Time to zero} = \frac{12,000}{526} \approx 22.8 \text{ years}Time to zero=52612,000​≈22.8 years

Thus, based on the current rate of decline, if no conservation measures are implemented, it would take approximately 23 years from 2015 for the giraffe population in Kenya to reach zero. This would project extinction by around 2038.

However, it’s important to note that conservation measures are in place, and ongoing efforts aim to halt or reverse this trend. This calculation assumes no interventions, which is not the actual case.

How can conservation efforts reverse trends?

Conservation efforts can reverse the declining trends in giraffe populations through a variety of targeted actions. Here are key ways conservation can positively impact giraffe populations:

1. Habitat Protection and Restoration

• Issue: Habitat loss and fragmentation due to agriculture, human settlement, and infrastructure development is a major cause of population decline.
• Conservation Approach: Establishing and expanding protected areas, such as national parks, wildlife conservancies, and wildlife corridors, can help giraffes retain and access their natural habitats. Restoring degraded habitats also improves the quality of the ecosystems they depend on.
• Impact: By securing safe areas for giraffes to roam and breed, conservation efforts ensure that they have the resources necessary for survival, such as food, water, and shelter from predators.

2. Anti-Poaching and Law Enforcement

• Issue: Poaching for bushmeat and illegal hunting contribute to the population decline, particularly in unprotected areas.
• Conservation Approach: Strengthening anti-poaching measures, increasing law enforcement patrols, and enhancing penalties for poaching can deter illegal activities. Community-based programs involving local people in protecting wildlife can also reduce poaching.
• Impact: Reducing illegal killings directly increases the survival rate of giraffes, particularly in regions where poaching has historically been rampant.

3. Community Engagement and Incentive Programs

• Issue: In many areas, local communities rely on land for agriculture and grazing, which can lead to habitat degradation. There may also be conflicts between wildlife and humans.
• Conservation Approach: Involving local communities in wildlife conservation efforts by providing economic incentives (such as tourism revenues, job opportunities in conservation, and compensation schemes for wildlife damage) fosters a sense of ownership and responsibility for wildlife protection.
• Impact: Community-based conservation programs, like those in the Maasai Mara, have shown success in creating wildlife conservancies where local people benefit economically from wildlife protection. This reduces conflict and encourages sustainable land use practices that are compatible with giraffe conservation.

4. Rehabilitation and Translocation Programs

• Issue: Populations in some areas are too low to recover naturally due to isolation or past over-exploitation.
• Conservation Approach: Rehabilitation of injured or orphaned giraffes and their eventual reintroduction into the wild can boost local populations. Translocation of giraffes from healthy populations to areas where numbers are critically low can also help restore balance in ecosystems.
• Impact: Strategic translocations and reintroductions can rebuild populations in areas where they have declined significantly, creating new breeding opportunities and increasing genetic diversity.

5. Predator Control in Certain Areas

• Issue: In areas with high predator densities, such as lions, calf mortality rates are high, which can limit population growth.
• Conservation Approach: Managing predator populations in certain areas, relocating lions, or providing safe havens where giraffes can give birth and raise calves without high predation pressure can boost giraffe calf survival rates.
• Impact: Increasing calf survival rates allows populations to grow, especially in regions where predation is a major limiting factor.

6. Research and Monitoring

• Issue: Lack of detailed data on giraffe populations and their ecology can hinder effective conservation planning.
• Conservation Approach: Continued research on giraffe population dynamics, movement patterns, genetic diversity, and threats is essential for informed decision-making. Long-term monitoring through techniques like photographic mark-recapture, satellite tracking, and aerial surveys helps track population trends and conservation outcomes.
• Impact: Research provides data that can guide adaptive management, allowing conservationists to implement strategies that address the most pressing threats and optimize the use of resources.

7. International Collaboration and Policy Support

• Issue: Giraffes often move across national borders, and conservation efforts in one country may be undermined by policies or activities in neighboring countries.
• Conservation Approach: Cross-border collaborations and agreements between countries, as well as international support through organizations like the IUCN, can lead to coordinated conservation efforts. Listing giraffes under international protection agreements (such as CITES) can regulate trade and prevent exploitation.
• Impact: Collaborative efforts enhance the effectiveness of conservation across giraffe ranges, ensuring that national efforts contribute to the overall survival of the species.

8. Education and Awareness Campaigns

• Issue: Many people are unaware of the threats giraffes face or the importance of their conservation.
• Conservation Approach: Educational programs aimed at local communities, tourists, and the global public can raise awareness about giraffes and the benefits of conservation. Highlighting giraffes’ role in maintaining ecosystem balance and their value to biodiversity can garner broader support for conservation initiatives.
• Impact: Public awareness leads to greater support for conservation policies, reduces illegal activities, and encourages sustainable practices that protect giraffes and their habitats.

Giraffe Pop’ In Masai Mara; High Giraffe Calf Survival (30%) in Maasai Mara’s Low-Lion Zones: Evidence from 8-Year Study

• Becker, C. D., Campbell, P. E., Kadane, L. A., Nagut, R. K., Kinanta, D. L., Stevens, H. C., & McKay, K. (2023). Giraffe calf survival and percentages in the Maasai Mara ecosystem: Conservation challenges and solutions on the Siria Plateau, Kenya. Life Net Nature, Maasai Moran Conservancy, Primate Global Foundation. Retrieved from ResearchGate.
• Panthera Leo